Bayesian Learning and Predictability in a Stochastic Nonlinear Dynamical Model

Bayesian inference methods are applied within a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to the problems of joint state and parameter estimation, and of state forecasting. We explore and demonstrate the ideas in the context of a simple nonlinear marine biogeochemical model. A novel approach is proposed to the formulation of the stochastic process model, in which ecophysiological properties of plankton communities are represented by autoregressive stochastic processes. This approach captures the effects of changes in plankton communities over time, and it allows the incorporation of literature metadata on individual species into prior distributions for process model parameters. The approach is applied to a case study at Ocean Station Papa, using Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo computational techniques. The results suggest that, by drawing on objective prior information, it is possible to extract useful information about model state and a subset of parameters, and even to make useful long-term forecasts, based on sparse and noisy observations

Role of SUMO-1 and SUMO Interacting Motifs in Rhesus TRIM5α-mediated Restriction

Background TRIM5α is a member of the tripartite motif family of proteins that restricts retroviral infection in a species-specific manner. The restriction requires an interaction between the viral capsid lattice and the B30.2/SPRY domain of TRIM5α. Previously, we determined that two SUMO interacting motifs (SIMs) present in the B30.2/SPRY domain of human TRIM5α (huTRIM5α) were important for the restriction of N-tropic Murine Leukemia Virus. Here, we examined whether SUMO expression and the SIM1 and SIM2 motifs in rhesus monkey TRIM5α (rhTRIM5α) are similarly important for Human Immunodeficiency Type 1 (HIV-) restriction. Results We found that mutation of SIM1 and SIM2 of rhTRIM5α abolished the restriction of HIV-1 virus. Further, knockdown of SUMO-1 in rhTRIM5α expressing cells abolished restriction of HIV-1. These results may be due, in part, to the ability of SUMO-1 to stabilize rhTRIM5α protein expression, as SUMO-1 knockdown increased rhTRIM5α turnover and the mutations in SIM1 and SIM2 led to more rapid degradation than the wild type protein. The NF-κB signaling ability of rhTRIM5α was also attenuated by SUMO-1 knockdown. Finally, upon inhibition of CRM1-dependent nuclear export with Leptomycin B (LMB), wild type rhTRIM5α localized to SUMO-1 bodies in the nucleus, while the SIM1 and SIM2 mutants did not localize to SUMO-1. Conclusions Our results suggest that the rhTRIM5α B30.2/SPRY domain is not only important for the recognition of the HIV-1 CA, but it is also important for its association with SUMO-1 or SUMO-1 modified proteins. These interactions help to maintain TRIM5α protein levels and its nuclear localization into specific nuclear bodies

Effects of process gas environment on platinum-inclusion density and dissolution rate in phosphate laser glasses

The effects of process gas environment on reducing the density of platinum inclusions in phosphate laser glasses are examined. The platinum inclusions originate from the crucibles used to melt the laser glass and can lead to optical damage in glasses used in highpeak- power lasers. The melting experiments examine the effects of N₂, O₂ and CI₂ gases on inclusion density and platinum dissolution rates. The more oxidizing the process gas conditions, the greater the dissolution rate (O₂ + CI₂ > O₂ » N₂). A thin-film mass transport model is used to analyze dissolution rate data for small plates of platinum over a range of temperatures from 1000 to 1200°C and oxygen fugacity of 10³ to 1 bar. At 1200°C the platinum dissolution rate is approximately 3.0- 10⁻⁸ (Pₒ₂)⁰⁷ (in g/(cm² * s)) where Pₒ₂ is the oxygen fugacity of the process gas in bar. Using CI₂ rather than O₂ causes a measurable increase in the optical absorption of the glass that may be due to either a red-shift and/or a greater absorption coefficient for the platinumchlorine complex

Numerical and Experimental Study on the Addition of Surface Roughness to Micro-Propellers

Micro aerial vehicles are making a large impact in applications such as search-and-rescue, package delivery, and recreation. Unfortunately, these diminutive drones are currently constrained to carrying small payloads, in large part because they use propellers optimized for larger aircraft and inviscid flow regimes. Fully realizing the potential of emerging microflyers requires next-generation propellers that are specifically designed for low-Reynolds number conditions and that include new features advantageous in highly viscous flows. One aspect that has received limited attention in the literature is the addition of roughness to propeller blades as a method of reducing drag and increasing thrust. To investigate this possibility, we used large eddy simulation to conduct a numerical investigation of smooth and rough propellers. Our results indicate that roughness produces a 2% increase in thrust and a 5% decrease in power relative to a baseline smooth propeller operating at the same Reynolds number of Rec = 6500, held constant by rotational speed. We corroborated our numerical findings using thrust-stand-based experiments of 3D-printed propellers identical to those of the numerical simulations. Our study confirms that surface roughness is an additional parameter within the design space for micro-propellers that will lead to unprecedented drone efficiencies and payloads.Comment: 23 Pages, 9 Figure

Effects of melting conditions on platinum-inclusion content in phosphate laser glasses

Results from small-scale glass melting experiments aimed at reducing the density of platinum particles in phosphate laser glasses are discussed. The platinum particles originate from the crucibles used to melt the laser glass and can cause optical damage in glasses used in high-peak-power lasers. The melting experiments examine the effects of a) temperature and temperature gradients; b) processing time; and c) O₂ atmosphere on the formation and dissolution of platinum inclusions in LG-750 phosphate laser glass. Results show that most platinum inclusions originate early in the melt cycle, with thermal gradients within the melter being one of the major causes. By using oxidizing conditions (O₂), the platinum inclusions can be dissolved into the glass during the course of the melt cycle. Results from the laboratory-scale melting experiments have been incorporated into a proprietary laser-glass melting process. The laser glass prepared under these conditions has an average of less than 0.1 platinum inclusions/1, which represents a 1000-fold reduction over the previously available phosphate laser glasses

Imaging of the gravitational lens system PG 1115+080 with the Hubble Space Telescope

This paper is the first of a series presenting observations of gravitational lenses and lens candidates, taken with the Wide Field/Planetary Camera (WFPC) of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We have resolved the gravitational lens system PG 1115 + 080 into four point sources and a red, extended object that is presumably the lens galaxy; we present accurate relative intensities, colors, and positions of the four images, and lower accuracy intensity and position of the lens galaxy, all at the epoch 1991.2. Comparison with earlier data shows no compelling evidence for relative intensity variations between the QSO components having so far been observed. The new data agree with earlier conclusions that the system is rather simple, and can be produced by the single observed galaxy. The absence of asymmetry in the HST images implies that the emitting region of the quasar itself has an angular radius smaller than about 10 milliarcsec (100 pc for H_0=50, q_0=0.5)

Joint analysis of stressors and ecosystem services to enhance restoration effectiveness

With increasing pressure placed on natural systems by growing human populations, both scientists and resource managers need a better understanding of the relationships between cumulative stress from human activities and valued ecosystem services. Societies often seek to mitigate threats to these services through large-scale, costly restoration projects, such as the over one billion dollar Great Lakes Restoration Initiative currently underway. To help inform these efforts, we merged high-resolution spatial analyses of environmental stressors with mapping of ecosystem services for all five Great Lakes. Cumulative ecosystem stress is highest in near-shore habitats, but also extends offshore in Lakes Erie, Ontario, and Michigan. Variation in cumulative stress is driven largely by spatial concordance among multiple stressors, indicating the importance of considering all stressors when planning restoration activities. In addition, highly stressed areas reflect numerous different combinations of stressors rather than a single suite of problems, suggesting that a detailed understanding of the stressors needing alleviation could improve restoration planning. We also find that many important areas for fisheries and recreation are subject to high stress, indicating that ecosystem degradation could be threatening key services. Current restoration efforts have targeted high-stress sites almost exclusively, but generally without knowledge of the full range of stressors affecting these locations or differences among sites in service provisioning. Our results demonstrate that joint spatial analysis of stressors and ecosystem services can provide a critical foundation for maximizing social and ecological benefits from restoration investments. www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1213841110/-/DCSupplementa

(2E)-3-(4-Chloro­phen­yl)-1-(2,4-dimethyl­quinolin-3-yl)prop-2-en-1-one

Two independent mol­ecules comprise the asymmetric unit of the title compound, C20H16ClNO, which differ in the orientation of the chalcone residue with respect to the quinoline ring [the C—C—C(=O)—C torsion angles are 69.5 (2) and 86.0 (2)°]. The configuration about each of the ethyl­ene bonds [1.342 (2) and 1.338 (2) Å] is E. The three-dimensional crystal structure is stabilized by a combination of C—H⋯O, C—H⋯N, C—H⋯π inter­actions and π–π contacts between the independent mol­ecules [Cg(C6 of quinoline)⋯Cg(C6 of quinoline) = 3.6719 (11) Å]

LIGHT PHOTINOS AS DARK MATTER

There are good reasons to consider models of low-energy supersymmetry with very light photinos and gluinos. In a wide class of models the lightest $R$-odd, color-singlet state containing a gluino, the $\r0$, has a mass in the 1-2 GeV range and the slightly lighter photino, \pho, would survive as the relic $R$-odd species. For the light photino masses considered here, previous calculations resulted in an unacceptable photino relic abundance. But we point out that processes other than photino self-annihilation determine the relic abundance when the photino and $R^0$ are close in mass. Including \r0\longleftrightarrow\pho processes, we find that the photino relic abundance is most sensitive to the $\r0$-to-\pho mass ratio, and within model uncertainties, a critical density in photinos may be obtained for an $\r0$-to-\pho mass ratio in the range 1.2 to 2.2. We propose photinos in the mass range of 500 MeV to 1.6 GeV as a dark matter candidate, and discuss a strategy to test the hypothesis.Comment: uuencoded compressed tar file containing 32 page LaTeX file and eight postscript figure